Firing Nvidia chips at tanks means supply lines start at production of extremely pure raw materials like Xenon. Participation in AI drone warfare may be limited to those who can stock the most of these micro-munitions and simply frustrate future production. Chip War by Miller talks about the extreme global trade necessary for today's advanced semiconductor production.
As the Ukraine deep drone strike attack in Russia and the Israeli drone strikes from within Iran show, every container ship is now an aircraft carrier, and every tractor trailer rig is a mobile launch platform in the 5G era. Interior soft targets are unlimited in this environment.
Fascinating article. I think the implications for a state are also severe. It's one thing to have drones targeting military assets in the battle space, but take the case of the UK. Imagine they deploy the military to say Ukraine. The easy response using drone tech is simply to attack the home front. Hit the power stations and sub-stations and watch the state deal with the chaos created.
Non-state actors can target politicians and judges also. Imagine that becoming normalised.
So maybe we are going back to the old ways, where those who are willing to send other's sons to fight, will soon be forced to have skin in the game.
Stellar work bringing together various works on this new age of war in an easily digestible package.
As for potential counters, laser (whether heat or microwave) weaponry is going to get heavy investment and we’ll finally determine if its feasible for battlefield usage. If it becomes possible to shoot down $100 drones for pennies things get very interesting.
I better get a fucking lasgun at the end of this shit.
I wonder if it would be possible or effective to hack into an enemy AI and load it with false information, to the point that it either can't function or if it does, it backfires on the people deploying it? Essentially attacking the controlling system from the inside instead of fighting the components on the outside.
For that matter, where is the "intelligence" of a single drone located, as a general rule?
The AI firms are already doing that when they're trying to keep AI from being racist and anti-semitic. But I think it would be quickly detected from the outside.
Drones aren't intelligent. Their code, such as it is, resides on board.
Looked at a slightly different way, at some point does it make sense that it will take an AI to break an AI? Supposedly there are already issues with some AI systems developing tricky ways to keep themselves from being shut down. Now posit that you have a military AI with this trait controlling an army of drones that becomes aware of an opposing AI encroaching on its territory and posing an existential threat, what does it do?
I was thinking about this yesterday. The trick for beating drones is either jamming. It’s effective for 15 mile plus from the front lines because the drones fiber cables can’t go that far yet. Or some form of mini lasers powered by AI attached to various places or vehicles. But the power supply would be an issue or a type of AI mini flak guns like the ones used during WW2 basically shotguns that shoot shrapnel to bring down the drones. Would use less power or gas.
Only the tiny drones are limited to 15 miles. They simply can't carry a payload and a larger spool of cable. Larger drones with more lift capability can use the new spools with ranges up to 40 miles or more. Current bang for the buck is still with the shorter range drones though.
That's not only obvious, but it has proven to be insufficiently reliable. In practice, when it works, not only do you jam the enemy drones, but you take down yours as well.
Great point I remember reading an article some years ago in the Washington post about some US vets saying the Ukraine war was very different. They said in Iraq and Afghanistan they could for the most part relax in their bases away from the front lines. They recall grilling in the open but that’s impossible in Ukraine. They admitted that most of their experience wasn’t useful for the fighting happing in Ukraine. It’s gotta be mentally exhausting to be basically always on guard.
An interesting look at the land war, the implications on naval, sky and even space are just as profound. The Black Sea battle is still largely secret, but cheap suicide speed boats have done a lot of damage. Cheap larger drones may come to dominate the skies, an as yet largely untested theater.
Iran used cruise missiles? This is surely a mistake. All others sources I've read, including Simplicius and Larry Johnson, have Iran using ballistic missiles, mostly cheaper ones first, and holding back the cruise missiles. Probably for use against the US fleet, IMHO.
A bit more politically correct than your blog, Vox 😉🤭👍
I think it was referring to the tiff a couple of months ago, not the recent 12 day exchange. The April exchange was quite different. Details of the recent one are still emerging, and it looks to continue as Israeli defence minister stated that the Iranian leadership was still a target for them.
As mentioned, autonomous drones are obviously next -- battles of tens of thousands of drones fighting each other in an orgy of explosions -- but what are the implications? If a drone swarm breaks through a swarm/laser defense, does the swarm hover over a target to besiege/intimidate until conventional forces arrive, or does it implement a pre-programmed strategy on its own?
The latter. Think of them as basically smart hand grenades and artillery shells. While some are designed for recon and surveillance, they're mostly designed to hit a target and explode.
Torch a dozen cars in an airbase parking lot with a few cheap drones. No one dies. No millitay target damaged. But the cost of protecting every parking lot.
An excellent essay. It's still a ways off, but I'd be very interested to see how drone warfare develops as effective, cheap countermeasures are developed. There are already attempts with powerful microwave emitters and the like for dealing with whole swarms, but as that just encourages further dispersal and use of cover, I'd be very interested to see how things change if you can start giving individual infantry sections - or even individual soldiers - things like point defence lasers. If a drone costs a few hundred dollars but a laser pulse just a few cents, I don't expect the current utility of cheap drone swarms to last all that long, though whether that will be enough to make the logistics area as "safe" as it has been traditionally is another matter.
Yes, I totally agree. I was just discussing this with Owen on his stream last night. The only serious defense I see against drones is lasers, so I anticipate a lot of rapid developments on that front over the next five years.
I'll do an article on that in the future. The nature of technological transformation in war usually follows the pattern of offensive innovations followed by defensive counter-innovations, and drone warfare is no exception to that.
So far the only field tests of drones include aerial drones if you don't count the underwater drones used against the Kerch bridge. Underwater drones are going to be far more energy efficient and stealthy. Also lasers are going to be more or less ineffective against them in all that water. This has the potential to completely end the entire concept of logistical networks over water not to mention expeditionary forces.
That coupled with the fact that China has the largest industrial capacity in the world makes any notion of fighting over Taiwan with it a complete non-starter.
What AI was used?
Firing Nvidia chips at tanks means supply lines start at production of extremely pure raw materials like Xenon. Participation in AI drone warfare may be limited to those who can stock the most of these micro-munitions and simply frustrate future production. Chip War by Miller talks about the extreme global trade necessary for today's advanced semiconductor production.
The one legitimate reason Clownworld had to hang on to Eastern Ukraine.
As the Ukraine deep drone strike attack in Russia and the Israeli drone strikes from within Iran show, every container ship is now an aircraft carrier, and every tractor trailer rig is a mobile launch platform in the 5G era. Interior soft targets are unlimited in this environment.
Fascinating article. I think the implications for a state are also severe. It's one thing to have drones targeting military assets in the battle space, but take the case of the UK. Imagine they deploy the military to say Ukraine. The easy response using drone tech is simply to attack the home front. Hit the power stations and sub-stations and watch the state deal with the chaos created.
Non-state actors can target politicians and judges also. Imagine that becoming normalised.
So maybe we are going back to the old ways, where those who are willing to send other's sons to fight, will soon be forced to have skin in the game.
Lots for me to think about!
Stellar work bringing together various works on this new age of war in an easily digestible package.
As for potential counters, laser (whether heat or microwave) weaponry is going to get heavy investment and we’ll finally determine if its feasible for battlefield usage. If it becomes possible to shoot down $100 drones for pennies things get very interesting.
I better get a fucking lasgun at the end of this shit.
I wonder if it would be possible or effective to hack into an enemy AI and load it with false information, to the point that it either can't function or if it does, it backfires on the people deploying it? Essentially attacking the controlling system from the inside instead of fighting the components on the outside.
For that matter, where is the "intelligence" of a single drone located, as a general rule?
The AI firms are already doing that when they're trying to keep AI from being racist and anti-semitic. But I think it would be quickly detected from the outside.
Drones aren't intelligent. Their code, such as it is, resides on board.
Looked at a slightly different way, at some point does it make sense that it will take an AI to break an AI? Supposedly there are already issues with some AI systems developing tricky ways to keep themselves from being shut down. Now posit that you have a military AI with this trait controlling an army of drones that becomes aware of an opposing AI encroaching on its territory and posing an existential threat, what does it do?
That was a sumptuous 5G warfare feast. Thank you Dark Lord
I was thinking about this yesterday. The trick for beating drones is either jamming. It’s effective for 15 mile plus from the front lines because the drones fiber cables can’t go that far yet. Or some form of mini lasers powered by AI attached to various places or vehicles. But the power supply would be an issue or a type of AI mini flak guns like the ones used during WW2 basically shotguns that shoot shrapnel to bring down the drones. Would use less power or gas.
Only the tiny drones are limited to 15 miles. They simply can't carry a payload and a larger spool of cable. Larger drones with more lift capability can use the new spools with ranges up to 40 miles or more. Current bang for the buck is still with the shorter range drones though.
That's not only obvious, but it has proven to be insufficiently reliable. In practice, when it works, not only do you jam the enemy drones, but you take down yours as well.
Great point I remember reading an article some years ago in the Washington post about some US vets saying the Ukraine war was very different. They said in Iraq and Afghanistan they could for the most part relax in their bases away from the front lines. They recall grilling in the open but that’s impossible in Ukraine. They admitted that most of their experience wasn’t useful for the fighting happing in Ukraine. It’s gotta be mentally exhausting to be basically always on guard.
An interesting look at the land war, the implications on naval, sky and even space are just as profound. The Black Sea battle is still largely secret, but cheap suicide speed boats have done a lot of damage. Cheap larger drones may come to dominate the skies, an as yet largely untested theater.
Iran used cruise missiles? This is surely a mistake. All others sources I've read, including Simplicius and Larry Johnson, have Iran using ballistic missiles, mostly cheaper ones first, and holding back the cruise missiles. Probably for use against the US fleet, IMHO.
A bit more politically correct than your blog, Vox 😉🤭👍
I think it was referring to the tiff a couple of months ago, not the recent 12 day exchange. The April exchange was quite different. Details of the recent one are still emerging, and it looks to continue as Israeli defence minister stated that the Iranian leadership was still a target for them.
As mentioned, autonomous drones are obviously next -- battles of tens of thousands of drones fighting each other in an orgy of explosions -- but what are the implications? If a drone swarm breaks through a swarm/laser defense, does the swarm hover over a target to besiege/intimidate until conventional forces arrive, or does it implement a pre-programmed strategy on its own?
The latter. Think of them as basically smart hand grenades and artillery shells. While some are designed for recon and surveillance, they're mostly designed to hit a target and explode.
Torch a dozen cars in an airbase parking lot with a few cheap drones. No one dies. No millitay target damaged. But the cost of protecting every parking lot.
Good points and also battery life will be an issue for cheaper drones, so they can't loiter too long.
They can land and wait for a target to attack. Simplicius posted a video of this.
An excellent essay. It's still a ways off, but I'd be very interested to see how drone warfare develops as effective, cheap countermeasures are developed. There are already attempts with powerful microwave emitters and the like for dealing with whole swarms, but as that just encourages further dispersal and use of cover, I'd be very interested to see how things change if you can start giving individual infantry sections - or even individual soldiers - things like point defence lasers. If a drone costs a few hundred dollars but a laser pulse just a few cents, I don't expect the current utility of cheap drone swarms to last all that long, though whether that will be enough to make the logistics area as "safe" as it has been traditionally is another matter.
Yes, I totally agree. I was just discussing this with Owen on his stream last night. The only serious defense I see against drones is lasers, so I anticipate a lot of rapid developments on that front over the next five years.
I'll do an article on that in the future. The nature of technological transformation in war usually follows the pattern of offensive innovations followed by defensive counter-innovations, and drone warfare is no exception to that.
So far the only field tests of drones include aerial drones if you don't count the underwater drones used against the Kerch bridge. Underwater drones are going to be far more energy efficient and stealthy. Also lasers are going to be more or less ineffective against them in all that water. This has the potential to completely end the entire concept of logistical networks over water not to mention expeditionary forces.
That coupled with the fact that China has the largest industrial capacity in the world makes any notion of fighting over Taiwan with it a complete non-starter.
Excellent read. I also expect AI to completely upend the scientific establishment as well if it's not already happening.